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Sales of new energy vehicles are growing negatively for the first time! Are New Energy Vehicles Still Driving?

2019-08-18

With the gradual improvement of people's living standards, the requirements for many daily necessities closely related to life are also constantly improving. Therefore, people will carefully compare different brands and make selective purchases when purchasing any products, whether furniture, lamps, bathroom sanitary ware or daily necessities. Line a certain selection and comparison before buying, here refers to the lamp brand, presumably we are more troubled when buying, because there are numerous lamp brands on the market. So it often brings consumers a kind of brand awareness mistake, do not know which to buy in the end. So today Xiaobian takes crystal chandelier as an example to introduce some famous brands of crystal chandelier to you.On August 12, the China Automobile Industry Association (CAAC) released data showing that sales of new energy vehicles fell by 6.9% in July from a year earlier, the first negative growth in more than two years.
Affected by the end of the transition period of new energy vehicle subsidy recession in June, new energy vehicle sales showed negative growth in July.
According to the CAAC data, the sales of new energy vehicles in July were only 80,000, down 4.7% from the same period last year, making it the first negative growth in more than two years.
Among them, 65,000 pure electric vehicles were produced, down 4.8% from the same period last year, 61,000 vehicles were sold, up 1.6% from the same period last year, and 20,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 19,000 vehicles were produced and sold, down 13.2% and 20.6% respectively from the same period last year.
The last negative growth of new energy vehicles was in January 2017. The negative growth was due to the influence of the Spring Festival factors in January and February each year, which were abnormal and not very fixed.
For this year-on-year negative growth, Chen Shihua, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, believes that it is mainly affected by the end of the transition period of new energy subsidies recession last month.
On June 26, the new policy of new energy automobile subsidy was implemented in 2019. The national subsidy standard will be reduced by about 50%, while the local subsidy will withdraw directly, and the subsidy will decline by nearly 70%. On the eve of subsidy recession, sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly. In June, sales of new energy vehicles reached 152,000, an 80% increase over the same period last year.
Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, said that if in absolute terms, the increase in sales in June due to the end of the subsidy transition period would be "adjusted" to July, the sales in July would still be positive growth.
From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 701,000 and 699,000 respectively, an increase of 39.1% and 40.9% over the same period last year.
Xu Haidong said that the new energy automobile market has the regularity of downturn in the first half of the year and concentrated outbreak in the second half of the year. The new energy automobile market in the second half of this year is still worth looking forward to. In addition, the policy switching between the Fifth and Sixth National Governments has also affected the sales of new energy vehicles to a certain extent, especially in non-restricted areas. In non-restricted areas, the original price of more than 200,000 yuan of fuel vehicles was reduced to more than 100,000 Yuan due to emission policy switching, which may lead some consumers who have the willingness to buy new energy vehicles to buy the fuel vehicles of G5.
It is noteworthy that the installed capacity of power batteries has decreased annually. According to the research data of Power Battery Application Branch, in July 2019, the installed capacity of power batteries for new energy vehicles in China was about 4.7 GWh, which increased by 40.5% year on year, but the ring ratio decreased by 29%. Among them, the installed capacity of new energy passenger vehicles is about 2.2 GWh, with a drop of 54% in the ring ratio.
As there are many uncertainties in the new energy automobile market, CAAC has also adjusted its annual sales target to 1.5 million vehicles from the 1.6 million vehicles predicted at the beginning of the year.
Chen Shihua said that in the past few years, the sales of new energy vehicles were basically low in the first half of the year and high in the second half of the year. The trend of the new energy market this year may show different characteristics.
"Under the background of dual support of policy and subsidy, the profit margin of most new energy vehicles is only about 23%, which is significantly lower than that of traditional fuel vehicles. As subsidies fall sharply, it will be difficult for many new energy automobile companies to make profits. Chen Shihua said that if the price of new energy vehicles does not rise in the second half of the year, many car companies will face an embarrassing situation of loss. Rising prices are facing market pressure, and the new energy vehicle market is full of variables in the second half of the year.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Federation, said that 2019 was the real downhill period of China's new energy automobile subsidy policy. Especially in July, when the new energy automobile subsidy declined substantially, there was no link between the local subsidy and the support policy of the use link after the withdrawal. The market-oriented transformation of new energy automobiles will face the possibility of a hard landing.
Cui Dongshu believes that private demand for new energy vehicles in the Chinese market is also in a temporary decline. At this time, we need to effectively enhance the comprehensive cost advantages of new energy vehicles, and local governments should increase the cost of subsidizing the use of new energy vehicles after the cancellation of subsidies.
"China's new energy automobile market will rebound in the middle and late August, and the sales of the mixed market will rise to a certain extent." Cui Dongshu judged that with the withdrawal of the old new energy garage from the market, the performance of new electric vehicles has been generally enhanced, and the sales of new energy vehicles will gradually resume growth after a short-term decline.
CITIC Securities auto industry analysts believe that July's decline in sales of new energy vehicles was mainly due to July demand for overdraft in June. Sales are expected to fall in August, with year-on-year sales unchanged. The industry sales will be low in August, and will be affected by seasonal factors of automobile consumption starting in September. The boom and market sentiment are expected to gradually recover. It is estimated that the sales will reach about 1.55 million vehicles in the whole year of 2019. The industry is expected to bottom up in the short term, and the medium and long-term growth trend is clear. It is suggested that attention should be paid to two main lines, one is the whole vehicle enterprise with the ability of "explosive" car type downstream, and the other is to find high-quality supply chain enterprises with global competitiveness in the midstream.
Car sales have fallen year-on-year for 13 consecutive months

Auto sales have fallen year-on-year for 13 consecutive months, according to data from the China Automobile Association. In 2018, the automotive industry grew negatively for the first time in 28 years, and the decline continued since 2019.
Judging from the July production and sales data, the decline has narrowed down, with production and sales of 1.8 million vehicles and 1.08 million vehicles completed respectively, down 5% and 12.1% respectively from last month, down 11.9% and 4.3% respectively from the same period last year, and down 5.4% and 5.3% respectively from the same period last month.
From January to July, automobile production and sales completed 13.933 million vehicles and 14.132 million vehicles, respectively. The output and sales decreased by 5% and 12.1% compared with the previous month, 13.5% and 11.4% compared with the same period last year, respectively. The decline in production and sales decreased by 0.2% and 1% compared with January to June, respectively.
According to Chen Shihua, although the overall decline in production and sales continued to narrow in July, the overall decline in industry production and sales has not fundamentally changed. Only SUV and Bus showed growth year on year, while the rest of the models showed a decline. According to the data from January to July, the overall production and sales of automobiles are still at a low level. With the increasing number of Guoliu vehicles, the promotion efforts of enterprises will be reduced, and the consumer's wait-and-see mood is expected to be improved.
Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Association, predicts that August's data will look better. With seasonal consumption of "gold, nine silver and ten ten silver" and other factors, the market is expected to recover in the second half of this year when the base is not high last year. "The reason why the market was not good in the first half of the year is also the policy switching of the Fifth and Sixth National Governments. Now that the switching is completed, the market is expected to return to normal development." Especially after the promulgation of the national and local incentive consumption policies, the incentive policies of various regions have landed one after another, which may have a positive impact on the automobile market.
In July, CAAC announced a reduction in its sales forecast for 2019, with an estimated annual sales of 26.68 million vehicles, down 5% from a year earlier.
Lianhe Xin Securities said that the decline in retail sales was relatively large, mainly due to the strong discount in June, overdraft demand in July and August, and the off-season of traditional automobile sales in July. Domestic car sales will gradually recover in the future, and the growth rate is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter.
Galaxy Securities said that in the environment of declining industry prosperity, it is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders with strong integration capacity and deeper technical reserves.


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